SpaceX IPO: is the $1.75 trillion valuation warranted?

SpaceX’s confidential filing allows the company to submit its financials to the SEC for regulatory review before revealing them to the public.

Under SEC rules, the public S-1 prospectus must be released at least 15 days before the company begins marketing shares to investors.

That prospectus will be the first public window into SpaceX’s full financial picture, including revenue figures, margin structure, the accounting treatment of the February 2026 xAI merger, defense contract disclosures, and the governance framework that will determine how much control Elon Musk retains post-IPO.

The IPO is internally codenamed “Project Apex” and managed by an unusually large syndicate of at least 21 banks.

A June 2026 listing on the Nasdaq would make SpaceX the first of what Bloomberg has described as a potential trio of mega-IPOs, ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic, and would shatter by a factor of nearly three the previous record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion offering in 2019.

ARK's research is designed to answer this question, and the most robust and rigorous answer is that the valuation reflects a specific set of assumptions about the future, not the present.

At $1.75 trillion against an estimated ~$18.5 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX would trade at ~95x trailing revenue at the IPO price. There is no established public market comparable for a company at this scale trading at that multiple. The valuation reflects not what SpaceX earns today but what investors believe SpaceX will become, which requires understanding the company's individual business segments.

Starlink is the financial engine. SpaceX's satellite internet service has surpassed 10 million active subscribers globally as of early 2026, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion. ARK's research has long identified Starlink as the fastest-growing telecom network in the world by customer and revenue onboarding, a view that has proven conservative. According to ARK’s research, the satellite connectivity market opportunity alone could approach $160 billion annually at scale, and Starlink is structurally positioned to capture a disproportionate share.

Launch services remain the foundation. SpaceX conducted 165 orbital launches in 2025 and has deployed ~85% of all spacecraft. ARK's research suggests that the company has reduced launch costs by ~95% since 2008—from roughly $15,600 per kilogram to under $1,000 per kilogram via Falcon 9. According to our research, a fully reusable Starship, targeting sub-$100 per kilogram, would represent another order-of-magnitude cost decline and unlock addressable markets that do not yet exist.

The xAI merger and orbital compute represent the most forward-looking dimension of the valuation. The February 2026 merger vertically integrated launch, communications, and AI model infrastructure under a single entity. ARK's research suggests that at sub-$100 per kilogram launch costs, orbital data centers could deliver compute at a cost ~25% lower than terrestrial alternatives without grid interconnection delays, permitting friction, or power scarcity. Musk has stated the company's ambition to launch 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year. The thesis is early-stage, but it is the reason the combined entity commands a strategic premium that no sum-of-the-parts model fully captures.

ARK's research suggests that the $1.75 trillion IPO target is grounded in a plausible trajectory for each of SpaceX's core business segments and that the structural advantages underpinning that trajectory are durable.

Starlink's adoption curve has exceeded expectations with profound consistency. Launch cost declines have followed a predictable path under Wright's Law. The xAI merger has added a strategic dimension to the platform that no comparable public company has even attempted to replicate. The public S-1 will provide the financial transparency that allows investors to pressure-test these assumptions rigorously, and ARK believes the fundamentals are strong enough to withstand that scrutiny.

ARK’s investment framework is built on a simple premise: bold technological vision backed by demonstrable cost curve declines and accelerating adoption deserves to be taken seriously, even when consensus is skeptical.

By that standard, SpaceX’s track record demands respect.

Musk’s goal of fully reusable rockets was considered unrealistic by the established aerospace industry for years. SpaceX achieved it. His vision for a global satellite internet network serving billions of underconnected people was considered nonviable financially. Starlink proved otherwise. The company has deployed a constellation of more than 10,000 Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit, serves over 10 million subscribers, and reached cash flow breakeven in 2023.

The more ambitious goals, including a factory on the moon and a network of one million orbital data centers, are further from proof of concept, but ARK’s research does not require every goal to be achieved to support our investment thesis.

The existing business segments, at their current trajectories, are plenty sufficient to justify a compelling investment case. The optionality embedded in the more ambitious goals represents upside that ARK’s current valuation models do not yet reflect, which we are currently updating.

In our view, Musk’s goals are ambitious by any historical standard, and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to compress the timelines that skeptics once assumed. Though not a guarantee, we believe that track record is a meaningful data point.

This is perhaps the most important question for investors and the answer has several dimensions.

The value creation window has shifted. Private companies are remaining private even longer, the median age of a US company at IPO reaching 12 years in 2025, up from just 5 years in 1999. The companies generating the most attention today are creating enormous value while still private. Investors who wait for the public listing to access that value potentially miss the most significant period of appreciation.

The IPO price is not the price most investors will pay. When a company of SpaceX's scale goes public, the offering is allocated first to institutional investors. Retail investors who cannot access the IPO directly will buy in the open market, at whatever price supply and demand establish on day one, which frequently is well above the IPO price. History suggests that high-profile IPOs at premium valuations often experience significant post-listing volatility before settling at a long-term price level.